For First-Time examinees in New York, I use their LSATs to gauge their pass rate. Generally, the 25th and 75th Percentile LSAT serve as a good barometer for pass rates. If the average LSAT for a class of matriculants drops as compared to the prior class, I similarly expect their bar exam pass rates to drop as compared to the prior class (the raw data can be viewed here: http://www.abarequireddisclosures.org/).

I estimate that the 2012 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who took the bar exam in 2015) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 153.2 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 159.3. The 2013 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who take the bar exam in 2016) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 152.8 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 158.9. The 2014 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who take the bar exam in 2017) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 152.5 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 158.7. The 2015 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who take the bar exam in 2018) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 152.4 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 158.4. Finally, the 2016 Full-Time Law School Matriculants (who take the bar exam in 2019) had a 25th LSAT Percentile of 151.2 and a 75th LSAT Percentile of 157.2.

Thus, pass rates for First-Time examinees in New York should continue to decline every year until at least 2019. However, while this was the case prior to the UBE exam, there seemed to be a UBE “bounce” that caused pass rates to rise in July 2016 even though the quality of the candidate diminished. This UBE effect continued in Feb 2017 and July 2017 where the year-to-year pass rates improved even though the quality of the candidates declined. However, now that the UBE is established in New York, I expect this UBE effect to dissipate, resulting in a declining year-to-year pass rate between F17 and F18. In Feb 2017, the overall pass rate for First-Time ABA graduates was 71%. Taking into account the horrible national F18 MBE mean of 132.8 (the lowest national February MBE mean since it was first administered in 1972), I predict an overall F18 pass rate for First-Time ABA graduates of 66% (which would be a decline of 5% from F17).